How may people will observe the eclipse and what might happen
 
 

 

This is a subject that must concern the authorities but it has already been discusssed on Internet.

"I had put this these numbers together a couple of months ago. My guess is that these population figures are a bit low. Number of Eclipse Observers

United Kingdom
Cornwall 500,000 total (Plymouth, 255,000; Torquay 122,000)

Recent estimates suggest 2,000,000 people will be in Cornwall.

On path of totality -- major cities

France
Amiens 160,000
Bordeaux 700,000
Cherbourg 260,000
Le Havre 260,000
Metz 200,000
Reims 210,000
Rouen 400,000
St.Etienne 325,000
Strasbourg 390,000
Paris 9,500,000 (path of totality is less than 1/2 hour drive from Paris)

The above listed French cities are those of 100,000 or more on the path of totality. If the total of about 2,000,000 is multiplied by 1.5 to account for smaller unlisted cities on the path, then about 3 million, plus those in Paris who chose to drive into the path of totality, or about 5 million will see the eclipse from within the path of totality in France, with tens of millions more seeing the partial phases. The eclipse is 99.4% total in Paris!

Germany
Augsberg 270,000
Heibronn 125,000
Inglostadt 110,000
Kaiserslautern 105,000
Karlsruthe 280,000
Munich 1,250,000
Pforzheim 120,000
Reutlingen 110,000
Saarbruken 195,000
Stuttgart 595,000
Ulm 117,000

About 3.3 million people in cities of population 100,000 or more are within the central line of the eclipse. This means a total of about 4.5 million on the path of totality in Germany. Millions more will take the short drive into the path.

In summary, there are minimally about 10 million observers in England, Germany, and France who, weather permitting, will see a total eclipse of the sun on August 11, 1999. Several million more who choose to observe from Paris will see a 99.4% total eclipse. Inclusion of Austria, Hungary, Romania, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, India, Belgium, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Syria, and Iraq suggests that perhaps 30 million people will see totality!"

And now a Mail from Stevan van Impe on SOLAREECIPSE list on Internet

"Examination of the relevant maps reveals that, weather permitting, in excess of 500 million people will experience more than 90% obscuration of the sun's disc!A question that is more relevant to prevent ultimate chaos is the size of the small band where all these people will troop together. Taking into account that the totality belt in the regions with the highest population density is at greatest 100 km wide for the environment of Paris (where people from the entire France, Belgium, Holland, Denmark and the west of Germany will probably flock together) and let's take about 500 km wide, about 15 million people will be together on only 50.000 km^2. That means a density of about 300 people per square kilometer. This means 3 square meters per person. It might seem a comfortable space, but the 50.000 km^2 from above is not completely available. Mountains, rivers, forests, roads, buildings, closed terrain, ... will drastically reduce the terrain. I hope my estimate of 15 million people was a bit too high. Even more terrifying: all these people will come by car. A normal car can hold about 5 people (let's be optimistic about carpooling). This means 3.000.000 cars. All coming via about 10 major highways with at most 4 lanes towards the eclipse. A highway is about 30 meters wide. Many people will be stuck on the highway when the eclipse starts. At totality, no car will move because those in the totality zone will get out of their cars and block those who are behind with only kilometers to go between the 99,99% and 100%. Children will start crying, drivers get nervous and cause minor accidents. And they're not in a mood to settle it with a friendly word and an insurancepaper. Possibly, millions of people will come by train. If the French and Belgian rail companies are active those days (ie. if there is, by exception, no strike) we can expect trains stacked with people. This reduces the number of cars to 2.500.000 cars (optimistically). Most trains will be stacked with people of whom we can expect many to faint (remember, it is midsummer) and probably many will arrive too late (no joke). Many people will even remain stuck in the railway stations where thay wanted to depart because trains are full and don't stop to pick up new passengers. After the eclipse, many people will have to sleep in the stations because every hotel is already fully booked."

A mistake has occurred: correct is 300 people per sq km, that means 3333,33... square meters per person...